国内顺酐市场维持在上行通道,而支撑此轮上涨行情的主要因素是台风来袭影响物流运输,主产区集中检修,以及成本面压力,等等,而在顺酐运行六千上方之后,市场对于顺酐继续冲高存有疑虑,但是顺酐的逆袭之路依然在继续。
The domestic maleic anhydride market remains in the upward channel, and the main factors supporting this round of rising market are the impact of typhoons on logistics and transportation, centralized maintenance in main production areas, and cost pressure, etc. after maleic anhydride runs to more than 6000, the market has doubts about maleic anhydride continuing to rise, but the counter attack road of maleic anhydride is still continuing.
不可否认,顺酐基本面的支撑力度有限,随着主力工厂的恢复供货,以及供需分歧的现状依旧维持等利空消息面抑 制,顺酐持续上涨条件并不充分,尤其是苯法顺酐工厂成本压力继续凸显。
It is undeniable that the basic support of maleic anhydride is limited. With the resumption of supply of main factories and the current situation of supply and demand differences still maintained, the conditions for maleic anhydride to continue to rise are not sufficient, especially the cost pressure of benzene maleic anhydride factory continues to highlight.
但是,对于基本面表现仍不牢靠的顺酐市场,续涨仍存阻力。
However, for the maleic anhydride market whose fundamental performance is still not reliable, there is still resistance to continue to rise.
一方面,供应面,随着山东及河南地区供应量的恢复,其余均将恢复运行,届时丁烷法供应量将有所提升,供应面相对充足。
On the one hand, the supply side, with the recovery of supply in Shandong and Henan, the rest will resume operation, when the butane supply will be increased, the supply side will be relatively sufficient.
二方面,需求面,下游树脂开工率变化不大,依旧维持在低位负荷,因此预期开工率提升有限,另外当前树脂原料苯乙烯,苯酐,顺酐均有走高,树脂成本面压力限 制采购表现。
On the other hand, on the demand side, the operating rate of downstream resin has not changed much and remains at a low load, so the expected increase in operating rate is limited. In addition, the current raw materials of resin, such as styrene, phthalic anhydride and maleic anhydride, are rising, and the pressure of resin cost side restricts the purchasing performance.
但是上述两方面消息有利也有弊,虽然一定程度上令顺酐续涨阻力,但另外则是因顺酐工厂多数持仓压力不大,且下游树脂工厂及贸易商当前原料库存低位,等令市场仍有刚需采购量存在,因此对于当前顺酐价位有所支撑,暂走弱风险小。
However, the above two aspects of news have both advantages and disadvantages. Although the maleic anhydride continued to rise to a certain extent, the other reason is that most of the maleic anhydride factories have little pressure to hold positions, and the downstream resin factories and traders have low inventory of raw materials, which makes the market still have rigid demand. Therefore, the current price of maleic anhydride has some support and the risk of temporary weakness is small.
因此整体来看,顺酐市场仍有苯法成本压力支撑短时不排除工厂仍有冲高迹象,但是需求面仍是价位方向的因素之一,因树脂原料成本也偏高,因此恐限 制树脂对高价原料接货兴趣,后续顺酐涨幅也将收窄。
Therefore, on the whole, the market of maleic anhydride is still supported by the cost pressure of benzene process. In the short term, it can not be ruled out that the factory still has the sign of soaring, but the demand side is still one of the factors in the price direction. Because the cost of resin raw materials is also on the high side, it is afraid to limit the resin's interest in receiving high price raw materials, and the subsequent rise of maleic anhydride will narrow.