国内顺酐市场维持在上行通道,而支撑此轮上涨行情的主要因素是台风来袭影响物流运输,主产区集中检修,以及成本面压力,等等,而在顺酐运行六千上方之后,市场对于顺酐继续冲高存有疑虑,但是顺酐的逆袭之路依然在继续。
The domestic maleic anhydride market maintains in the upward channel, and the main factors supporting this round of rising market are typhoon, impact on logistics and transportation, centralized maintenance in main production areas, and cost pressure, etc. However, after maleic anhydride has run above 6000, the market has doubts about maleic anhydride continuing to rise, but the counter attack road of maleic anhydride is still continuing.
但是,对于基本面表现仍不牢靠的顺酐市场,续涨仍存阻力。
However, for the maleic anhydride market whose fundamental performance is still not reliable, there is still resistance to continue to rise.
一方面,供应面,随着山东及河南地区供应量的恢复,尤其是25日前后除去盛源2.5万吨装置,新疆2万吨装置依旧处于检修状态,其余均将恢复运行,届时丁烷法供应量将有所提升,供应面相对充足。
On the one hand, with the recovery of the supply in Shandong and Henan, especially in the 25 days before and after the removal of Shengyuan 25000 ton unit, Xinjiang 20000 ton unit is still in maintenance status, and the rest will resume operation. At that time, the butane process supply will be improved and the supply side will be relatively adequate.
二方面,需求面,下游树脂开工率变化不大,依旧维持在低位负荷,另外当前树脂原料苯乙烯,苯酐,顺酐均有走高,树脂成本面压力采购表现。
On the other hand, on the demand side, the operating rate of downstream resin has little change, and it is still maintained at low load. In addition, the current resin raw materials such as styrene, phthalic anhydride and maleic anhydride are all on the rise, and the resin cost side is under pressure purchasing performance.
但是上述两方面消息有利也有弊,虽然一定程度上令顺酐续涨阻力,但另外则是因顺酐工厂多数持仓压力不大,且下游树脂工厂及贸易商当前原料库存低位,等令市场仍有刚需采购量存在,因此对于当前顺酐价位有所支撑,暂走弱风险小。
However, the above two aspects of news have both advantages and disadvantages. Although to a certain extent, maleic anhydride continued to rise resistance, but in addition, the majority of maleic anhydride factories have little position pressure, and the current raw material inventory of downstream resin factories and traders is low, which makes the market still have a demand for procurement. Therefore, the current price of maleic anhydride is supported, and the risk of temporary weakening is small.
因此整体来看,顺酐市场仍有苯法成本压力支撑短时不排除工厂仍有冲高迹象,但是需求面仍是价位方向的因素之一,因树脂原料成本也偏高,因此恐限 制树脂对高价原料接货兴趣,后续顺酐涨幅也将收窄。
Therefore, on the whole, the maleic anhydride market is still supported by benzene process cost pressure, and it is not ruled out that the factories still have high signs in a short time, but the demand side is still one of the factors in the price direction. As the cost of resin raw materials is also high, it is afraid that the resin's interest in receiving high price raw materials will be restricted, and the subsequent increase of maleic anhydride will also be narrowed.